Energy Transitions & Investment in Emerging Markets: Navigating Shifting Undercurrents

April 2025

The Energy Transitions and Investment in Emerging Markets: Navigating Shifting Undercurrents summit was convened on April 8, 2025, during a moment of profound disruption and transformation. In an era marked by the dismantling of US foreign assistance programs and rising pressures on multilateral systems, the event brought together the Duke University community and leading practitioners to take stock and ask urgent questions about what comes next.

Participants explored how the breakdown of traditional norms and institutions is creating both instability and opportunity—and how we, as a community, might respond with creativity, resilience, and bold thinking. Through open dialogue and grounded debate, the day’s goal was not just to reflect, but to strategize and reimagine pathways forward for energy, equity, and development. These discussions will help inform the next chapter of the James E. Rogers Energy Access Project’s work and offer a snapshot of a community deeply engaged in supporting the energy transition journeys across low- and middle-income countries.

Explore insights and highlights in the full event summary.

PANEL 1: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM:
WHAT THE SHIFT IN US FOREIGN ASSISTANCE MEANS FOR LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES—AND FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO WORK IN THIS FIELD

This panel tackled the seismic shifts underway in US foreign assistance under the current administration, assessing the impacts on global development, governance, and opportunities for future professionals in the field. A key thread throughout was the recognition that many countries—particularly in Africa—are actively engaging in parallel conversations about how to reduce or end aid dependence altogether, seizing this moment of disruption as an opportunity to reassert sovereignty and reshape development on their own terms.

KEYNOTE: UNIVERSAL ENERGY ACCESS—
WILL WE EVER ACHIEVE IT?

Kate Steel, Cofounder and CEO, Nithio, began with a bold, clear answer to the keynote’s central question: Yes—we will achieve universal energy access. Despite the challenges, she urged a reframing of the narrative around access to electricity as a solvable problem, not an intractable one.

Two themes underpinned her optimism:

• We’ve already come a long way. Most of the global population—90%, or about 7 billion people—now has access to electricity. Approximately 75% of the world has relatively affordable and reliable electricity. Steel said that if this were any other sector, we’d call that a success story—only 10% more to go.
• We don’t need breakthrough technology. Every necessary technology already exists—from grid extension to solar home systems. What’s missing is not innovation but the will, funding, and coordinated public push to reach the hardest-to-reach populations.

Declining aid budgets and the retreat of corporate environmental, social, and governance commitments promise to further constrain the funding environment, potentially making it more difficult for enterprises reliant on blended or concessional capital to secure investment.

Meanwhile, rapid technological advancements are creating new possibilities—but translating these into market traction remains difficult given persistent emerging market challenges, including political risk, high capital costs, and reliance on imported technologies. With policy and regulatory gaps and uncertainty continuing to hinder enterprise growth and market expansion, attention to policy frameworks and financial tools to mitigate certain investment risks remain critical.

PANEL 3: POWERING RESILIENCE, GROWTH, AND JUSTICE—AN ENERGY TRANSITION REFRAME

Panelists explored the role of different stakeholders in bridging the financing and technical gap to achieve energy transition in emerging markets and developing economies. In the current era of global multipolarity, high competition, declining aid budgets, and rising geopolitical tensions, innovation, public-private partnerships, and cross-border collaboration will remain essential to delivering on energy and development goals. As nations navigate these shifting dynamics, it will be critical to find new ways to attract investment and develop bankable project pipelines to drive the energy transition forward.

LIGHTNING TALKS ON HIGH-IMPACT RESEARCH PROJECTS:DUKE STUDENTS AND YOUNG SCHOLARS IN ACTION FOR ENERGY TRANSITIONS

This session featured cutting-edge research exploring the intersection of energy access, equity, and sustainability across diverse global contexts. Presentations covered topics ranging from healthcare electrification and groundwater governance to artisanal mining and urban energy transitions. For more details, please refer to the event summary document.

INTERACTIVE STRATEGY SESSION:
JIM ROGERS’ COCKTAIL NAPKIN, 10 YEARS LATER—WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE JAMES E. ROGERS ENERGY ACCESS PROJECT (EAP)?

The James E. Rogers Project at Duke was established in 2017, with an aim to address challenges related to energy access in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) by fostering evidence-based decision-making. Capitalizing on Duke’s research capacity, the project aims to integrate theory and practice through constructive policy dialogues and innovative solutions, to accelerate the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.” With the surge in the cost of capital, increasing public debts, and shifts in aid dynamics, challenges are mounting for EMDEs, requiring research institutions—local and international—to be more innovative not only in the solutions they propose, but also in the way they design and structure partnership modalities.

That being the case, the conversation did not only focus on the future of the EAP project, but also reimagined the role of universities in actively engaging in global problem-solving, especially in the climate action space. As such, universities could serve as platforms for innovation, partnership, and transformational change.